Jiaqi Li

Jiaqi Li

Job Market Candidate in Economics

Department of Economics, University of Warwick

Primary Field: Labor Economics
Secondary Fields: Development Economics and Environmental Economics

I am a structural labor economist studying how uncertainty and institutions shape household time allocation and human capital inequality, using quantitative models, causal inference, and panel data.

I am on the 2025-26 academic job market. Please feel free to contact me via email at j.li.51@warwick.ac.uk

Curriculum Vitae

PhD Thesis Summary

My dissertation contains three papers investigating how the decisions of mothers, fathers, and children shape human capital inequality, providing new evidence on mechanisms through which policy can reduce these disparities.

Chapter 1: Mothers (Job Market Paper)
I provide systematic evidence that Black women in the U.S. face a much smaller "child penalty" than White women—a gap driven entirely by high-wage, highly-educated mothers. I argue their immediate return to work reflects not economic strength but a second-best response to greater economic precarity. This seeming advantage conceals a large "shadow penalty" paid in sacrificed leisure as women self-insure against greater labor and marriage market risks. Using a structural life-cycle model, I quantify this welfare cost, showing how observed labor market advantages can mask underlying inequality. Standard measures focusing on wages and employment may systematically understate true disparities.

Chapter 2: Fathers
I show that heterogeneity in fathers' parenting time is a critical but overlooked driver of inequality in children's human capital. Using a dynamic factor model with instrumental variables, I find equalizing fathers' time across childhood stages would reduce disparities by 22% in cognition and 49% in health.

Chapter 3: Children
While prior work emphasizes child labor as the main channel through which rainfall shocks affect education, I highlight commuting barriers shaped by road infrastructure. Using household panel data and village-level precipitation from 2002–2016, I find that excessive rainfall lowers enrollment and lengthens commuting time, but only in villages with dirt roads. Robustness checks confirm effects occur during school terms, not holidays. Estimating a cognition production function, I show commuting reduces both quantity and quality of study time. These findings underscore infrastructure’s dual role in supporting child development and enhancing climate resilience.

Research

Working papers and work-in-progress

PhD Thesis

Structural Labor Gender
This paper documents novel findings that Black women in the U.S. experience child penalties in ways that fundamentally differ from those faced by White women. The child penalty in employment is one-third as large for Black women (10%) compared to White women (30%). Educated, high-wage, married Black women return to the labor market almost immediately after childbirth. This racial difference in the labor-leisure trade-off is driven by subjective expectations: Black households face higher probabilities of layoff in the labor market, as well as higher probabilities of separation, divorce, and not remarrying. Using a structural life-cycle model, I show that high-ability Black women use labor market attachment for self-insurance while sacrificing their own leisure to maintain high levels of parenting time. This generates lower observed penalties in wages and labor force participation, but larger unobserved penalties through sacrificed leisure. Counterfactual simulations reveal that equalizing marriage probabilities and layoff shocks can close up to 75% of the racial gap in child penalties in employment. Welfare improves primarily through increased leisure for Black women. These results highlight the importance of uncertainty and dynamic household choices in explaining persistent racial gaps in female labor supply and child penalties.
Child Development Structural Labor
This study investigate the impact of fathers’ time investment on children’s human capital development. Using household data from the PSID time diary and Child Development Supplement, we document significant heterogeneity in paternal time investment. To quantify these effects, we employ a dynamic factor model framework to estimate the production function for children’s human capital, focusing on cognitive and health outcomes. To address the endogeneity of parental time investment, we implement a control function approach that leverages local labor demand shocks as instruments. Our counterfactual analysis demonstrates that equalizing paternal time investment across different stages of child development can significantly reduce inequalities in cognitive and health outcomes by adolescence. Specifically, equalizing paternal time during both early and middle childhood leads to a 22 percent reduction in cognitive disparities and a 49 percent reduction in health disparities. These findings underscore the pivotal role of paternal time investment in shaping inequalities in children’s human capital development.
Development Economics Climate Economics Child Development Structural Labor
Previous research shows that rainfall shocks reduce educational outcomes in developing countries through the child labor mechanism: when rainfall raises agricultural wages, children substitute work for schooling. This paper identifies commuting as an additional mechanism. Using longitudinal data from Ethiopia on children’s time allocation, cognitive scores, and village-level precipitation, I document that excessive rainfall lengthens commuting time and reduces enrollment, but only where schools are connected by dirt rather than gravel roads. The cognition gap between gravel- and dirt-road communities widens when rainfall deviates from normal. Exploiting variation in the school calendar, I show that commuting disruptions occur primarily when excessive rainfall coincides with term time. I estimate a cognition production function where commuting affects both the quantity and quality of study hours. The findings underscore infrastructure’s dual benefits as a policy lever for both child development and climate resilience.

Other Working Papers

Development Economics Gender
We provide the first causal evidence that structural transformation, or service sector expansion, has led to a decline in women's intrahousehold bargaining power in 15 Sub-Saharan African countries. Using two-way fixed effects and instrumental variable estimations, we show that this decline is particularly pronounced in countries with more restrictive gender norms. To ensure robustness, we further validate our findings by leveraging sub-national statistics and within-country variations. To reconcile this fact, we add a new feature --- social stigma against females working in the service sector --- into an otherwise standard structural transformation model. We show that structural transformation can reduce the female-to-male wage ratio and prevent female empowerment if the social stigma exceeds a threshold.
Climate Economics Macroeconomics Development Economics
What is the macroeconomic impact of flooding? With the increasing frequency and severity of flooding events, climate change is expected to impact macroeconomic and financial stability. Combining global data on satellite images of flooding, precipitation, trade, and comprehensive panel data on economic performance, I use Jorda's local projection method with maximum precipitation serving as an external instrument for causal identification. Flood significantly increases the inflation rate by about 3 percentage points (p.p.), and raises import (share of GDP) and export by about 5 p.p., and 2 p.p. respectively, predominantly affecting developing countries. Flooding shock has significant spillover effects on inflation through trade. An additional day of flooding among all trading partners raises domestic inflation by about 5 p.p.

Early Work in Progress

Development Economics Family Economics Structural Labor
Marriage Regime and Household Choices
Development Economics Family Economics Structural Labor Macroeconomics
Structural Transformation and Marriage Market
with Rachel Ngai
Structural Labor International Trade Development Economics
International Trade and Intrahousehold Choice
with Richard Blundell

Supervisors

SB

Sonia Bhalotra

Professor of Economics

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SC

Stefano Caria

Professor of Economics

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JF

James Fenske

Professor of Economics

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